Simple Trading Review WFM As Of Thursday 30 July 2015

WFM W 30 July 2015

Current Trend (W): Down

Abv/Below Value Zone: Below

Next Scheduled Report Date: Just reported 30 July 2015

52 Week High: $57.57

52 Week Low: $35.52

Current Relevant Resistance: $40 – $42

Current Relevant Support: $35.52

Recent Close: $36.08

Comment: I’ve written several times about WFM, most recently here.  When last I wrote about it (Motley Fool was suggesting it as 1 of 8 top stocks to buy in June) I said the stock was not only testing long term support and that failure looked imminent, but that it was an outright Sell (not a shortsell mind you… I don’t suggest rookies trouble themselves with all that).  Today the stock got taken out behind the wood shed.  The $40-$42 zone remains strong resistance, but I’m not thinking we will see that again anytime soon.  In terms of support, I don’t see any really coming in until around $30 and next around $26.  Then again, falling margins (due to lowering prices to meet competition) and slowing growth do not a good combination make… and in light of the response from co-ceo Mackay to the New York overcharging scandal

“We don’t think our track record is any different from any other supermarket,” he said. “We don’t know why Whole Foods was singled out for this attention …We don’t know why the media went wild with this.”

Really?  The co-ceo doesn’t know why a company that’s pinned its entire strategy in the persistently low margin supermarket area on being “different” (read better) than other supermarkets, is being treated differently?

Sell.

 

 

Simple Trading BABA — Revisiting A Stalk Candidate 13 July 2015

BABA W 13 JULY 2015

Current Trend (W): Down

Abv/Below Value Zone: Below

Next Scheduled Report Date: 12 August 2015

52 Week High: $120.00

52 Week Low: $76.21

Current Relevant Resistance: $95.06

Current Relevant Support: $76.21

Recent Close: $76.21

Comment: On 29 May 2015, I wrote a post suggesting BABA could be a good reversal play not unlike the Weekly reversal put in by FB in late 2013.  The “bad” news is that play was stopped out last week at $77.76.  The good news is a new setup confirmed today.  Look for a pullback to $81.51 for a long entry.  If taken into a trade, place a hard stop just below $76.21.  As always, limit your risk to a small portion of your account by limiting your position size.

Have fun.

KIS,

The Trader

 

 

Simple Trading SPX As of 8 July 2015 Close – Is The Uptrend Over?

SPX Daily

SPX D 8 July 2015 Close

The SPX breached a much watched technical level today… the 200 Day EMA.  It also closed below it for the first time since late 2014.

SPX Weekly

SPX W 8 July 2015 Close

The weekly chart shows that the bottom of the Value Range is in jeopardy.

In terms of price levels to watch, I would keep an eye on 2,040 (a more recent support level), 2,000 (another psychologically important level) and the 1,965 to 1,980 range.  Even if price manages to breach each of these levels, be on the lookout for a sharp bounce not unlike the sharp pullback and launch in 2014.

Alternatively, if you consider the late June high around 2,125 a lower high and the price action here a lower low after having breached the 2,070-2,075 support level, you should wait for a retracement of this most recent down move before laying out shorts… to the extent you do that sort of thing…

Here are a few other reasons for bulls to sweat…

DJIA

DJIA D 8 July 2015

Dow Jones Transports

DJ Transports D 8 July 2015

 

Russell 3000

Russell 3K D 8 July 2015

And a couple of reasons for bulls to be hopeful…

Nasdaq Composite

Nasqaq Composite D 8 July 2015

Russell 1000

Russell 1K D 8 July 2015

At any rate, as long as you keep your wits about you and your risk contained, you can enjoy these volatile days.  It’s where the best opportunity often lay for short term traders.

KIS,

The Trader

P.S. Trading on the NYSE was suspended for better than 3 hours today… and the markets never skipped a beat.  The floor has been shedding bodies for years… I suspect that might accelerate going forward.

9 July 2015 Update:  Apparently others are thinking similar

 

Simple Trading Update Week Ending 2 July 2015

roller coaster

After a dramatic start to the week, we saw price retrace some of the losses and end down fairly modestly all things considered.  As you will see from most of the following weekly charts, prices remain in overall uptrends and at little risk of breaking major support in the near term.

That said… though we bounced off the lowest levels by the end of the week, the Daily charts are structured negatively and the 60 Minute charts show pretty bearish price pattern setups.   It will be interesting to see how they play out come Monday.

So… for the record, lest I be unclear… my bias remains to the upside (along with the weekly charts) and won’t be changing unless/until said weekly patterns change.  However, opportunistic traders (who allow themselves to trade short) can likely profit in the near term.

 

SPX

Weekly

SPX W 2 July 2015 Close

 

Daily — Price expanded the support zone lower, but failed to push very far back above its top.

SPX D 2 July 2015 Close

 

60 Minute — Classic sell setup… hard push down, drift higher and, likely, a resumption to downside.

SPX 60m 2 July 2015 Close

 

DJIA

Weekly — Not as far above the bottom of the Value Zone…watch closely

DJIA W 2 July 2015 Close

 

Daily

DJIA D 2 July 2015 Close

 

60 Minute

DJIA 60m 2 July 2015 Close

 

 

Nasdaq Composite

Weekly — Tech seems to be the least imperiled of the big three…

NASDAQ COMP W 2 July 2015 Close

 

Daily

Nasdaq Comp D 2 July 2015 Close

 

60 Minute

Nasdaq Comp 60m 2 July 2015 Close

 

 

Russell 3000

Weekly

Russell 3K W 2 July 2015 Close

 

Daily

Russell 3K D 2 July 2015 Close

 

60 Minute

Russell 3K 60m 2 July 2015 Close

 

 

Russell 1000

Weekly

Russell 1K W 2 July 2015 Close

 

Daily

Russell 1K D 2 July 2015 Close

 

60 Minute

Russell 1K 60m 2 July 2015 Close

 

DJ Transports

Weekly — The Transports have historically provided a great heads up for direction of the overall equity markets.  We are far less dependent on traditional make and ship businesses, but transportation IS still integral… as such, this bears watching.

DJ Transports W 2 July 2015 Close

 

Daily

DJ Transports D 2 July 2015 Close

 

60 Minute

DJ Transports 60m 2 July 2015 Close

Have a great weekend folks.

KIS,

The Trader