How To Trade EUR/USD Now - As of 7 April 2019

The EuroUSD has been in a clear downtrend for quite some time.  As the monthly chart above shows price has tested the downtrend line (1) repeatedly finally breaking through support (2) at the beginning of 2015.  

Price then fell to just above the 1.03 level (5).  That became the new floor until early 2018.  Price bounced back to the previous support (3) which now tried to pretend it was resistance (price struggled to get through that level for a few bars).  After pushing a bit higher to the downtrend line (4), price reversed and has drifted lower since that point in early 2018.

The question now, as ever, is whether price will continue to fall or if it will stage a strong bounce.  Here, I would have to say stay with the larger downtrend and hold shorts/look for short entries.  

My mind will only change if price can push up through the downtrend line and the most recent swing high (above point 4).