A clear trend, but is there interest?

The S&P Select Financials ETF is in a clear trend to the upside and making new 52 Week Highs.  That said, it is happening on declining volume.

Does that mean the trend is in trouble and likely to reverse soon?  No, not necessarily… volumes have fallen across the board over the last few days and the notion that a trend is due to reverse when volume falls (or accelerate when volume rises) is an oxymoron at best.  For every seller, there must be a buyer and vice versa in order for a trade to happen, thus rising and falling volume don’t tell us anything more than that there is rising and falling “agreement”, or more generally that there is rising and falling interest in a security.  At best, you can say that this rise on falling volume is “interesting” and worth keeping an eye on.

XLF 18 July 2013

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