An Updated Simple Look At AAPL – As of 25 November 2016 Close

Barbara C. from San Francisco Asks The Trader about AAPL:

What are your current thoughts on AAPL?  All the world (including lots of Wall Street analysts… for what that’s worth) seems to be resuming a bullish view.  I own it from much lower and it’s been very good to me, but I don’t to be foolish and go for a circus ride.  I’ve watched some of the calls you’ve made and they’ve been pretty good.  What say you about Apple?

Thanks for the question and the “compliment” Barbara… 

My opinion on AAPL is unchanged from this post in June of this year.   Which was a followup to this post from April [which asked if AAPL was all grown up].

My thought?  AAPL has work to do to resume an up trend.  So keep working some of the many other names that have up as a path of least resistance.  And to you dear Barbara?  See below.

To be sure, AAPL has recovered from the lows below $100 seen earlier this year.  In fact, it’s managed to climb more than halfway back to the all time high seen last year.  


Interestingly, price briefly eclipsed the top of the 618 [shown by the ellipse here on the weekly chart], but couldn’t manage to hold the level.  In my mind, unless price can get above $119 and hold/push higher, there’s no reason to think the stock has established a new up trend.

AAPL Weekly

Finally, although the price candles on the monthly and weekly charts above suggest price is tempted to go higher, the daily chart below shows an interesting potential retracement failure inside the bigger [higher timeframe] retracement failure.  If you’ve followed my work for awhile, you know that I’m a big fan of contextualization.  The context here clearly favors more downside… or at least suggests that it will be a while before Apple’s price can establish upside momentum anew.

AAPL Daily

I’m not really a fan of telling folks what to do with stocks… and I have even less interest in telling you to sell a stock that’s had as many comebacks as Apple.  What I will do is suggest you define a price level at which you no longer want to own the stock (for the time being at least) which will trigger your exit from Apple.  How you arrive at that price (whether technically, fundamentally or some combination of the 2) is strictly up to you. 



The Trader