As part of their series of reports marking the 25th anniversary of the World Wide Web, Pew Research canvassed a range of experts to assess what impact robotic advances and the use of Artificial Intelligence [AI] will have on society—and on human employment in particular—by 2025. Nearly 1,900 respondents expressed their views on two questions: 1.) “To what degree will AI and robotics be parts of the ordinary landscape of the general population by 2025? Describe which parts of life will change the most as these tools advance and which parts of life will remain relatively unchanged.” 2.) “Will networked, automated, artificial intelligence (AI) applications and robotic devices have displaced more jobs than they have created by 2025?”
The vast majority of them expect these technologies to permeate wide segments of daily life over the next ten years—but they are deeply divided on how this will impact the job market. 52% of experts say tech advances will NOT displace more jobs than they create by 2025; 48% say they will.
“The central question of 2025 will be: what are people for in a world that does not need their labor, and where only a minority are needed to guide the ‘bot-based economy?”
Future-of-AI-Robotics-and-Jobs—Stowe Boyd, lead researcher at GigaOM Research
I took the liberty of adding a copy of this Pew Research report to The Art of Simple Trading because i think it’s enormously important. The debate has become as common as the debate over climate change and interestingly the 2 sides are split over a similar issue. Like those debating climate change, no one claims that there is not a significant technological shift occurring. The debate is a) whether that shift will have a long term effect and b) just how deleterious to human employment technology it will be.
The side arguing that there will not be a great decline in jobs for humans leans primarily on the fact that humans have to this point always figured out a way to have MORE jobs from technological innovation… not less. In other words, we’ve always been ok, so there’s no reason to believe we won’t be again.
In my opinion, that argument amounts to didn’t happen before… won’t happen now. Kinda like some of my former neighbors in South Florida… they seemed to genuinely believe that the likelihood of a big hurricane actually hitting the area is pretty low based on historical precedence. Not the best way to prepare for the future I think or hurricanes for that matter.
Speaking of preparedness… Both sides seem to agree that as a society we (US) are doing a poor job of preparing our children for the jobs of the future (which in my mind amounts to a tacit admission from the “no big deal” crowd that it IS a big deal). So in other words, we are passing on a legacy of ill preparedness… awesome.
At any rate, take the time to read this report. It’s not trading related per se, but it’s definitely a good reason to learn this game.